Handicapping the Mayor's Race

Last week we had a kooky idea: with two weeks left in Philadelphia's Democratic Primary for Mayor (and a bunch of other offices and judgeships that have gotten zero attention), there still seems to be plenty of wiggle room for any one of the five major candidates to make a bold move and take this thing. The latest poll (April 27) as of this post was taken by Susquehanna Polling and Research, and commissioned by the Pennsylvanians for Effective Government (PEG), and lays out the field like this with 15 days remaining:

Tom Knox 20%
Michael Nutter 18%
Chaka Fattah 14%
Bob Brady 9%
Dwight Evans 7%

So our idea? The Great Ross Associates Mayoral Sweepstakes! Give us who you think the winner will be, and the vote percentage, and you could win a prize. The person who correctly predicts the winner, and comes closest to the winning vote percentage without going over, will win a prize that our boss guarantees will be worth at least $100. While that may not sound like very much to you, getting $100 out of our CEO represents a real accomplishment, so enter now before he changes his mind.

Entry is simple. Just reply to this post, or send an e-mail to ross@rossassociates.biz with the following information: your candidate of choice, his percentage total, your name, address, phone number and e-mail address. Sample:

John Doe
1212 Philadelphia Street
Philadelphia, PA 19100
(215) 555-0000
jdoe@anything.com

Dwight Evans 44%

We'll collect and tally all entries, and on Wednesday, May 16th (the morning after), we'll pore over the entries and find out who wins! In case of a tie, well... we'll flip a coin or pull the names out of a hat, or some other unbiased tiebreaker. We'll then inform the winner, and deliver the loot. Simple as that. Nothing to buy, no long term obligation.

There's still time to support the candidate of your choice. Forget the polls. It's close enough statistically that a stumble by any one of these guys could sway the race in another direction, but more likely our fearless leader Bill Miller is right when he says that it comes down to Election Day and the effectiveness of each candidates' street machine.

Philadelphia's elections almost inevitably boil down to Election Day and the street machines. It's the way elections are won and lost in this town, and this one probably won't be any different. So get out there on Election Day and vote, or even better, volunteer at the polls. And meanwhile, send us your prediction of who and by how much, and you could win a cool prize worth at least $100.

And hang in there folks, it's almost over.