Water Cooler Whiners

Primary Election Day Analysis

Comment and analysis of the May 15, 2007 Election Day results with your round table of Ross Associates political insiders: Daryl Gale (black), Heidi Gold (blue), Billy Miller V (green), and Darisha Miller (red).

Best and Worst of the Mayor’s Race

Michael Nutter ran the best campaign, and I don’t say that because he won. He’s been talking about and preparing to run for mayor for years. He had a local expert doing his media - someone who knew the city, its people and how they think. I, like many people, underestimated Michael's relentless pursuit of the things he wants. He was the last to launch his television ad campaign, which lulled people into a sense that he was disorganized, broke or both. Looking back, it was probably calculating. While many laughed at his ad attacking John Street, it actually worked well, as most people were disgusted with the pay-to-play culture that was rampant during his administration, his perceived lack of taking any bold action against the escalating homicides plaguing the city, and his arrogant attitude – perceived or otherwise. People wanted something, but I’m not certain they knew what they wanted. When Michael defined it as change from the status quo, it stuck like crazy glue.

Couldn’t agree more. Neil Oxman, his local expert, was masterful. I honestly think that’s what made the difference for Nutter – Oxman’s institutional knowledge of the city and the political players allowed Nutter to get his message to exact demographics. He knew where and when to spend, making maximum use of the money Nutter had. Plus, as an added bonus, he raised every dime in accordance with the new, stricter campaign finance laws – and shot holes in the theory that Tom Knox would be able to buy City Hall outright.

[Nutter’s campaign] was organized, visible, and there was a solid team effort. The volunteers were consistent, and friendly on the telephone. I received emails from his campaign daily, more than all the other candidates combined.

Michael Nutter started slow, but he gradually introduced his issues, built momentum and stayed on message. His best moment was the “Olivia” commercial.

The Olivia ad was brilliant. The commercial showed a personable Nutter. He's a policy
wonk but he's a part of a family who supports him.

Kudos to Olivia. She even got into the fundraising end of the campaign when she wanted to charge me for her autograph. And let’s not forget Olivia’s robo calls leading up to Election Day.

I thought the Olivia ad was a stroke of genius. Not only did it humanize him as you say, it also subtly pointed out that Nutter was the only candidate to send his child to public school. He went from numbers nerd to good old dad in thirty seconds.

Michael also consistently performed the best in the debates. He had succinct, well-thought answers and didn't get into the fray that the other candidates did. He acted like a leader and never wavered.

Chaka Fattah ran the worst campaign by far. The rumors of his arrogance prevailed during the Mayor's race.

Rumors? Hell, his arrogance itself prevailed!

Every innuendo, rumor, perception and stereotype about him proved to be true. This was his election to lose. While he was waiting to be crowned the next mayor, his opponents were outworking him. When he dropped so far in the polls that he became desperate: the Barack Obama fundraising letter, the campaigning celebrities (if that's what you want to call them), and ultimately the racial attack on Michael Nutter showed his true personality and ultimately cost him the election.

Let’s just say it: Congressman Fattah blew it on a number of different levels. He was awful, and I agree with Heidi – the cheap Uncle Tom shot on Nutter backfired, as it should have. I think he knew it as soon as he said it. You could see the “I [fouled] up” look on his face.


I disagree with you guys on this one. State Representative Dwight Evans ran the worst campaign. He had the experience, the accomplishments, high positives and low negatives, but never energized people until it was too late. With his pedigree this should have been a slam dunk, but Philadelphians are more concerned with being comfortable and watching good commercials than actual substance.

Dwight Evans simply did not relay his message well. He began to show his frustration when he was asked questions during forums. He blossomed during the last 4 weeks in the campaign, but by then it was too late. He had a good head start, and he never shined. He never told his story.

I still don't understand why someone as bright as Dwight Evans who had been preparing to run again for the last eight years never caught on. Well, I guess I actually do - too long-winded, too cerebral (especially that table ad that no one understood), he didn't answer questions... His presentation got better at the end of the campaign when voters had already written him off. That, and the fact that many voters believed we are better off with him in Harrisburg where he really shines. Did he ignore his campaign advisors or did they give him bad advice? You can’t be the campaign manager AND the candidate, and that I believe was one of the flaws in his campaign.

It’s a close call, no doubt about it – but the question on the table here is the absolute worst campaign, and for that I have to agree with Darisha and Heidi – it’s Chaka Fattah hands down. Billy’s right in everything he said about Evans’ campaign, but because Evans was always in last place it can be said that he never gained traction. Chaka, on the other hand, was way out front with a comfortable lead, which he just sat on until it dwindled down to nothing. He fell a lot farther than Dwight. Even now, look at the guys who lost. Dwight is greeted with a hero’s welcome in Harrisburg, Bob Brady is still party chair, and the Mayor of Capitol Hill. Only Chaka lost in terms of power and reputation. Now I hear rumblings about his house seat being vulnerable.

Funniest Moment

The funniest moment came during a debate when Paul Vallas, the school district’s CEO, was called a bean counter by Tom Knox. Congressman Brady said, “Well, with a 200 million dollar deficit he didn’t count them beans very well did he, Dwight?”

I laughed my [you know what] off when Congressman Brady & Tom Knox were arguing during the debate with Chris Matthews. I loved when Tom Knox stated, "If I'm elected Mayor the first thing I'm going to do is kick your butt."

Actually, Knox said “I’m going to City Hall to kick some bureaucratic butt and yours will be the first one!” But point taken. To me, though, Brady’s comeback was twice as funny. The mock fear, and asking Matthews if he could move his chair was classic, and made Knox look even more like a donkey.

I loved the televised debates that got way out of control of the moderators. Poor Marty Moss Coane yelling “stop”was a scream! It was Rock’em Sock’em Robots personified. Brady's shots at Knox were the best.

A close second for me was when Dwight Evans called Chaka Fattah’s plan to lease the airport “voodoo economics”. First, I hadn’t heard that one since Reagan was alive, but the real hoot was the reaction shot from Chaka. He looked like someone stole the surprise out of his Cracker Jacks.

Didn’t Dwight steal the “fuzzy math” line from Al Gore? Thank God he didn’t talk about putting the airport in a lock box!


City Council Races

The fourth district race was a surprise. I just knew that Matt McClure was going to win.
I was also sure Sharif Street was going to win an at-large seat. He had advertisements on Septa, the Sunday Inquirer, radio, and community newspapers. He's raised money for over three years and lost.

Yeah, well that just goes to show you. He raised money, he got the ads, but he couldn’t change his last name. And to be honest, I just don’t think voters were willing to put another Street in office. He was also screwed by his goofy uncle Milton being on the ballot. Once that happened, Sharif was deader than General Custer.

Blondell Reynolds-Brown’s [at-large] squeaker was not so much a surprise to those of us who have been keeping score the past four years, but perhaps to outsiders it was. She pretty much always aligned with the mayor – and a lame duck one at that , cast some bad votes on tax reform and lost the support of the Chamber of Commerce and the business community. Four years ago she came in first I believe in the Primary, but fifth in the General Election. She spent most of her time campaigning for John Street rather than for herself. So much for lessons learned. This time she was hawking Chaka Fattah.

The fact that Bill Green won is a surprise to me since he's so universally disliked. I didn’t come across one Council at-large candidate who said anything positive about him. Nothing! Nada! Zip! Zilch! ZERO! And then I met him – or tried to. He approached a group I was with at an event and when I tried to talk to him, he couldn’t be bothered. He looked over me, around me, through me, obviously down on me, and was totally disinterested in what I had to say. So I was totally disinterested in voting for him. But chalk that win up to the Ed Rendell factor.

I think insiders totally underestimated Bill Greenlee, but in his own quiet way, he worked hard for his win and I think insiders may have underestimated his link to his boss and mentor, the late Councilman David Cohen and the voters love for him.

I thought Blondell was going to lose. I changed my mind when I looked at the candidates
and she was the only black woman in the race.

Well, she was the only black woman in the at-large race. District council dinosaurs Marian Tasco, Donna Reed Miller, and Jannie Blackwell are black and won all their races going away. You couldn’t get them out of those chairs with dynamite. It was easy work for the white women on council as well: Joan Krajewski and Anna Verna sailed to easy victory.

Speaking of Jannie Blackwell, her shotgun wedding to Tom Knox didn’t seem to sit well with her colleagues, and doesn’t bode well for her chances to unseat Verna as Council President.

I knew Curtis Jones was going to win in the Fourth. Matt was energetic but he was unknownb - he has not worked in the district long enough to prove that he deserved the seat. Curtis, although a lightning rod for controversy, has been in West Philly helping citizens for years. Blondell Reynolds Brown got the win that she needed for her independence. She showed that she can win without ward leaders or the party.
Regarding Blackwell, she is still in the game, but the deal’s over the summer.

Correction. She was in the game.

Political insiders believe that hell will freeze over before Jannie Blackwell wins the Council presidency. She alienated her colleagues by aligning with Tom Knox, who took unkind shots at the classy Anna Verna. The newspapers have it wrong when they break down the votes for her. In the end, I don't believe some of those Council members who the press assumes will be with her, actually will be. From what I hear in inside circles, Blackwell lost all credibility.

I’m with you. At this point, I don’t think Jannie Blackwell could muster the votes to be elected president of her bowling league. In the long run, it probably doesn’t pay to cross swords with Anna Verna. She looks like a sweet little old lady, but she’s an old school South Philly politician and could cut your throat, watch you bleed to death, and then go have a nice lunch.

With a smile on her face.

Councilmen Kenney & DiCicco had to work their tails off because the feds are on State Senator Fumo's indictment.

I thought the scent of Fumo was all over this election from start to finish. You’re right, Darisha – Kenney and DiCicco were probably scared, but in the end, they sailed through with no problem.

In the end, Council will continue to do its work, but I do believe that the relationship between Council and the mayor will be better - hell, it couldn't get worse. Many people who know Michael Nutter, including his former Council colleagues, believe that he is more like John Street than he realizes. He is a maverick, not a consensus builder, and he burned some bridges while he served in Council. I do think that our elected officials now understand that change is in the air and I think they will all try to work together for the good of the city. Michael will have a bumpy first year, much like Ed Rendell did in Harrisburg, as he tries to get his arms around the Chief Executive role. Being a legislator is far different from being the Chief Executive. He’ll have to negotiate labor contracts and figure out if Street left him any money in the coffers to deliver on his campaign promises. It’ll also take a while for Mayor Nutter and City Council sort out their new relationship with each other. Brady stays as party chair because Michael needs him. Of course, all this is assuming that he beats Al Taunbenberger in the fall.

I’m hoping that City Council sessions will be more productive. I'm looking forward to the new members of Council reforming the city under the helm of Mayor Nutter.

Please. I mean – I ‘d like to hope you’re right, of course – but this is Philadelphia City Council we’re talking about here. Those couple of new Council members will spend the first six months trying to figure out the telephone system. But I think their competence, intelligence and willingness to immerse themselves in budgetary matters will distinguish the legislators from the player haters.

Judges Races

Judges don't campaign like the mayor and City Council candidates do. They rely heavily on paying the party to do their work for them. Sadly, there are no televised debates because there are too many candidates. Voters rely on direct mail and word of mouth. Those who had a photo with Ed Rendell gained credibility simply because no one knows who they are, but if Ed Rendell says they’re good people, that’s good enough for us. If Ed sent a mailer endorsing Bozo the Clown, Bozo would now be a judicial nominee.

Sad but true. There’s no better example of the insanity of our judicial selection process than Willie Singletary, who won a seat as a Traffic Court judge despite having an outstanding $11,000 in unpaid tickets, several convictions, a warrant for his arrest, and the fact that his own license is revoked until 2011. Now, come on folks. That’s just a damn shame.

I always call my lawyer friends and ask questions about the candidates who are running for judgeships. I don't have any interactions with judges or attorneys until elections.

People just don’t care about judges races, and don’t pay attention to them. I admit that I tend to be one of them. It’s the corrupt ward system of putting judges on the ballot that turns people off.

I agree, ward politics sucks. As long as we allow candidates to pay ward leaders for votes, the best candidates may not win. Ward leaders extort (did I say that out loud?) money from everyone then cut who they want off the ballot anyway. And don’t get me started about ballots. Every Tom, Dick and Harry had a ballot this Election Day. There has to be a better system. No wonder Philadelphians don’t vote.

If merit selection becomes a reality, then our judicial system will no longer be a laughing stock.

Predictions and Prognostications

My predication of hope for the future: Willie Singletary is thrown out. He sends the wrong message of leadership in the Democratic process. The hope is that "Good Government" is restored to the City of Philadelphia. Small and Minority businesses will have opportunities to conduct business in and outside of the city, and college graduates will have the opportunities to seek employment in the City of Philadelphia.

Willie winning that seat really sticks in your craw, doesn’t it? I go back to the tongue-in-cheek summary of the democratic process put forth by Aristotle, “In a democracy, the people get exactly the government that they deserve.’ Okay, somewhat less cynically, I think that both Michael Nutter and City Council have made promises on ethics reform and good government that now they’ll have to live up to. Without John Street to kick around, there won’t be anyone to pass the buck to.

Well, my wish for the future of this city is that people realize the importance of voting, and maybe more than 40 percent of our citizens will actually do so. It’s a few days after Election Day, and already the naysayers are jamming the talk radio phone lines telling their sob stories about why they didn’t vote. It’s time to hang up on those people.

In November, voters elect Michael Nutter the next mayor of Philadelphia and he brings the same work ethic and determination to reforming city government that he did to issues when he was in City Council. What we learned: Perception is reality.